2005: range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada 
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 2005: range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada

1: Int J Parasitol. 2005 Oct 5; [Epub ahead of print] Related Articles,
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Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme
disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada.

Ogden NH, Maarouf A, Barker IK, Bigras-Poulin M, Lindsay LR, Morshed
MG, O'callaghan CJ, Ramay F, Waltner-Toews D, Charron DF.

Groupe de Recherche en Epidemiologie des Zoonoses et Sante Publique,
Faculte de Medecine Veterinaire, Universite de Montreal, Que., Canada;
Division of Enteric, cooking.net">food and Waterborne Diseases, Public Health Agency
of Canada, Guelph, Ont., Canada.

We used an Ixodes scapularis population model to investigate potential
northward spread of the tick associated with climate change. Annual
degree-days >0 degrees C limits for I. scapularis establishment,
obtained from tick population model simulations, were mapped using
temperatures projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s by two Global
Climate Models (the Canadian CGCM2 and the UK HadCM3) for two
greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcings 'A2'and 'B2' of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Under scenario 'A2' using
either climate model, the theoretical range for I. scapularis
establishment moved northwards by approximately 200km by the 2020s and
1000km by the 2080s. Reductions in emissions (scenario 'B2') had little
effect on projected range expansion up to the 2050s, but the range
expansion projected to occur between the 2050s and 2080s was less than
that under scenario 'A2'. When the tick population model was driven by
projected annual temperature cycles (obtained using CGCM2 under
scenario 'A2'), tick abundance almost doubled by the 2020s at the
current northern limit of I. scapularis, suggesting that the threshold
numbers of immigrating ticks needed to establish new populations will
fall during the coming decades. The projected degrees of theoretical
range expansion and increased tick survival by the 2020s, suggest that
actual range expansion of I. scapularis may be detectable within the
next two decades. Seasonal tick activity under climate change scenarios
was consistent with maintenance of endemic cycles of the Lyme disease
agent in newly established tick populations. The geographic range of I.
scapularis-borne zoonoses may, therefore, expand significantly
northwards as a consequence of climate change this century.

PMID: 16229849 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

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