A Predictive Model for the Development of Hepatocellular
A Predictive Model for the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma,
Liver Failure, or Liver Transplantation for Patients Presenting to
Clinic With Chronic Hepatitis C.
Bonis, P.A.L., Tong, M.J., Blatt, L.M., Conrad, A., Griffith, J.L.
American Journal of Gastroenterology. 1999; June 1999; no. 6 1605-1612
A statistical model was constructed to predict the likelihood of chronic
hepatitis C patients to develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver
failure, or require liver transplantation, and the rate by which the
disease will progress. Host and virological characteristics, as well as
risk factors for disease acquisition, were used as variables. The study
endpoints were HCC, liver failure or liver transplantation. Multivariate
analysis revealed that a history of decompensated liver disease and
serum albumin were independently associated with the study endpoints. In
patients with no decompensation and whose albumin levels were 4.1 mg/dl
or less, the likelihood of progressing to any of the endpoints in 5
years was minimal (3.2%), while in those who have no decompensation and
a serum albumin greater than 4.1 mg/dl, the risk increased to 40%. HCV
genotypes and quantitative RNA did not contribute to the likelihood of
disease progression.
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